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Thursday, July 31, 2025

Thailand’s Loss, Vietnam’s Gain: The Decline of Thai Products in Cambodia Amid 2025 Tensions

Thailand’s Loss, Vietnam’s Gain

 1. Background of the Dispute and Impact on Trade

   - Border Dispute Context : The conflict escalated after a clash at the Thai-Cambodian border, resulting in casualties and Thailand's refusal to fully reopen border checkpoints. In retaliation, Cambodia imposed a ban on Thai fruit and vegetable imports starting June 17, 2025, and extended restrictions to Thai films and soap operas, affecting cultural product circulation.

   - Trade Impact : Thailand’s exports to Cambodia, valued at approximately $4.4 billion annually, include a wide range of goods such as beverages, auto parts, engines, agricultural machinery, and consumer products. The import ban and partial border closures have disrupted the flow of these goods, particularly perishable agricultural products.


 2. Specific Thai Products Affected 

   While exact product names circulating in Cambodia are limited due to the ban, the following categories and examples provide insight into the situation:

   - Agricultural Products :

     - Fruits and Vegetables : Prior to the ban, Thai fruits like durians, mangoes, and mangosteens were popular in Cambodia. The June 2025 ban halted these imports, with Cambodia turning to Vietnam and Laos for alternatives. No specific Thai fruit brands are currently circulating legally in Cambodia due to the restrictions.

     - Processed Agricultural Goods : Thai brands like Mae Pranom (chili paste) and  Aroy-D  (coconut milk) were previously common in Cambodian markets but are now restricted or replaced by Vietnamese or local alternatives.

   - Beverages :

     - Thai beverage brands such as Ichitan (iced tea), Oishi  (green tea), and  Singha (beer) have faced reduced circulation. Some Cambodian retailers have reported replacing Thai beverages with Vietnamese brands like Vinamilk or Chinese alternatives.

   - Dairy Products :

     - Dutch Mill , a popular Thai yogurt drink, has been largely replaced by Vietnam’s **Dalat Milk** in Cambodian markets, as noted in local reports. This shift reflects Cambodia’s pivot to Vietnamese suppliers amid the ban.

   - Consumer Goods :

     - Thai brands like Mama (instant noodles), Double Pagoda (snacks), and Colgate Thailand (personal care products) were previously widespread but are now less available due to import restrictions and consumer boycotts.

   - Cultural Products :

     - Thai films and soap operas, such as those produced by GDH 559  or Channel 7 Thailand , have been banned from Cambodian TV and cinemas since June 2025. This has led to a surge in demand for Korean and Chinese media content.

   - Industrial and Automotive Products :

     - Thailand exports auto parts, engines, and agricultural machinery (e.g., Kubota  tractors) to Cambodia. While these are less affected by consumer boycotts, border checkpoint closures have disrupted supply chains, reducing their availability.


 3. Cambodian Consumer and Market Response

   - Boycotts and Nationalism : Cambodian ultranationalist groups have called for boycotts of Thai products, but the impact on consumer behavior has been limited. Many Cambodians prioritize product quality and price over national origin, meaning some Thai goods (e.g., smuggled or pre-ban stock) may still circulate informally.

   - Vietnamese Substitution : Vietnam has capitalized on the ban, increasing exports of consumer goods like biscuits, milk, chocolates, and noodles. For example, **Vinamilk** and **Hao Hao** noodles have gained market share previously held by Thai brands.

   - Smuggling and Black Market : Despite the ban, some Thai products may still enter Cambodia through informal channels, particularly in border regions like Poipet. However, specific product names in these channels are hard to verify due to the illicit nature of the trade.


 4. Economic and Political Context 

   - Trade Volume : Thailand is Cambodia’s third-largest trading partner, with $4.4 billion in exports to Cambodia annually. The ban on agricultural products and cultural goods has strained this relationship, though industrial goods like machinery remain less affected due to their necessity.

   - Border Closures : The partial closure of border checkpoints, such as those in Banteay Meanchey and Battambang, has disrupted the flow of goods, particularly perishables, leading to significant losses for Thai exporters.

   -  Cambodian Policy : The Cambodian government, led by Prime Minister Hun Manet, has used the ban to assert national sovereignty amid the border dispute. The ban on Thai media also aligns with efforts to curb Thai cultural influence, which some Cambodian nationalists view as excessive.


5. Challenges in Identifying Specific Product Names 

   - The import ban and border restrictions make it difficult to pinpoint exact Thai product names currently circulating in Cambodia. Legal imports of Thai agricultural goods have ceased, and consumer goods are being replaced by alternatives. Smuggled goods or pre-ban stock may persist, but no comprehensive list of such products is available.

   - Data Limitations : Real-time data on specific product circulation is sparse due to the dynamic nature of the dispute and limited reporting on informal markets. Checking posts on X or local Cambodian news sources (e.g., Khmer Times, Phnom Penh Post) could provide further insights, but as of now, no specific Thai product names dominate the Cambodian market.


 6. Recommendations for Further Clarity 

   - Specify Product Category : If you’re interested in a specific category (e.g., food, beverages, electronics, or media), I can tailor the response further. For example, I could focus on whether specific Thai brands like Mama noodles or Singha  beer are still available through informal channels.

   - Real-Time Search : I can search X or the web for the latest updates on Thai products in Cambodia if you’d like. This could uncover recent consumer trends or smuggled goods.

   - Local Context : If you have access to Cambodian markets or local sources, you might observe which Thai products remain on shelves (e.g., in Phnom Penh or Siem Reap) despite the ban

 7. Broader Implications 

   -  Economic Impact : The ban has led to losses for Thai exporters, particularly in agriculture, while Cambodian consumers face higher prices for some goods due to reliance on alternative suppliers.

   - Cultural Shift : The ban on Thai media has boosted demand for Korean dramas and Chinese films, potentially reshaping Cambodia’s cultural consumption patterns.

   -  Regional Dynamics : The dispute highlights tensions in ASEAN, with Vietnam gaining economically at Thailand’s expense. Resolution of the border conflict could restore Thai product circulation, but as of July 31, 2025, tensions remain high.