Gold doesn't move in a vacuum—it's a barometer for global unease. Here's what's poised to propel prices higher :
1. Central Bank Gold Rush: Expect another 700-900 tonnes of annual purchases, led by China, India, and Russia. These institutions view gold as a hedge against dollar dominance and sanctions risks, with demand showing no signs of abating.
2. Fed Easing and Low Yields: Three more rate cuts into early 2026 will slash the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, sparking ETF inflows and retail buying. Declining real yields have historically correlated with 20-30% gold gains.
3. Geopolitical and Policy Wildcards: Escalating U.S. tariffs under President Trump, ongoing conflicts, and ballooning government debt (U.S. levels now exceed 130% of GDP) amplify gold's safe-haven appeal. Add in IMF-downgraded global growth forecasts through 2026, and you've got a recipe for flight-to-quality flows.
4. Supply Constraints: Mining output is flatlining due to regulatory hurdles and underinvestment, creating a structural deficit that tightens the market.