Gold prices have experienced extraordinary volatility and growth in early 2026, trading around $4,930–$4,980 per ounce as of February 5, after surging to a record high near $5,600 in late January before a sharp correction of over 9% in a single session. This pullback stemmed from factors like a rebounding U.S. dollar, speculation around Federal Reserve leadership changes, and profit-taking, yet the metal quickly rebounded with gains exceeding 5% in subsequent sessions.
The broader outlook for 2026 remains strongly bullish, fueled by structural drivers that show no signs of fading. Central banks continue aggressive accumulation—projected at 750–900 tonnes or more annually—as emerging-market institutions diversify reserves away from the dollar amid de-dollarization trends. Geopolitical uncertainties, including trade tensions, regional conflicts, and policy unpredictability under evolving U.S. leadership, sustain safe-haven demand. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts lower real yields, making non-yielding gold more attractive, while high global debt levels and inflation concerns reinforce its role as a hedge.
Major institutions have upgraded forecasts in recent weeks, reflecting confidence in sustained demand despite short-term swings:
- J.P. Morgan now targets $6,300 per ounce by year-end 2026, up from prior estimates, citing robust quarterly demand averaging 585 tonnes from central banks (around 190 tonnes) and investors.
- Wells Fargo raised its end-2026 projection to $6,100–$6,300, driven by anticipated lower short-term rates and persistent official-sector buying.
- UBS lifted targets to $6,200 for key quarters, settling near $5,900 by December, with upside potential to $7,200 in bullish scenarios.
- Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale hold steady at $6,000 , emphasizing ongoing investment flows and non-dollar asset shifts.
- Goldman Sachs eyes $5,400 by year-end, incorporating steady central-bank purchases and ETF inflows as hedges against macro risks
- Broader consensus from Reuters polls (30+ analysts) points to a median average of around $4,750 for the year, though individual Wall Street views cluster higher, with optimistic cases reaching $6,600 (e.g., Jefferies) and conservative floors near $4,500 .
For 2027 and beyond, momentum is expected to persist in many models, with J.P. Morgan forecasting averages toward $5,400 by year-end 2027, and longer-term projections (e.g., from algorithmic or bullish scenarios) suggesting $7,000–$10,000+ if diversification and uncertainty endure. The World Gold Council anticipates 5–15% gains in a moderate slowdown scenario or 15–30% in a high-risk downturn, offsetting potential jewelry or tech demand weakness via ETF and institutional inflows.
