Gold prices have experienced extraordinary volatility and upward momentum in the opening weeks of 2026, with the spot price rebounding sharply to trade in the $4,940–$4,970 per troy ounce range as of February 4, 2026. After a steep pullback earlier in the week—marking one of the sharpest two-day declines in recent memory—gold staged a powerful recovery, posting daily gains of around 6% in some sessions. This rebound pushed prices back toward recent highs near $5,000, reflecting renewed safe-haven buying amid persistent global uncertainties.
Live data from major platforms like Kitco, JM Bullion, Trading Economics, and COMEX futures show the metal trading at approximately $4,945–$4,960 per ounce in recent hours (with minor fluctuations depending on the exact timestamp and source). This level represents a remarkable year-to-date performance, building on gold's already historic 2025 rally, where it climbed over 60–70% amid escalating geopolitical and economic pressures.
Analysts attribute the current strength to a combination of short-term catalysts and deeper structural drivers. Geopolitical risks remain front and center: ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, fresh tensions involving Greenland, NATO dynamics, Venezuela-related issues, and broader trade uncertainties tied to tariffs continue to fuel demand for gold as a reliable store of value. These flashpoints create an environment where investors seek protection from potential market disruptions, currency volatility, and policy unpredictability.
Adding to this momentum is robust central bank purchasing . Emerging-market institutions, led by players like China and India, have maintained aggressive accumulation—often exceeding 800 tonnes annually in recent years—as part of a long-term strategy to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar. This trend, which accelerated post-2022 amid sanctions and de-dollarization concerns, provides a steady demand floor that cushions corrections and supports higher averages. Surveys from the World Gold Council and other bodies indicate that many central banks view gold as a hedge against inflation, fiscal instability, and geopolitical shocks.
Investor flows have also played a key role. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw record inflows in 2025, with continued interest in 2026 as real yields remain attractive relative to historical norms but still supportive of non-yielding assets like gold. Retail demand for physical bars and coins stays elevated, particularly in Asia, while institutional "conviction buyers" treat the metal as a core diversification tool.
Wall Street remains predominantly bullish for the rest of 2026, with consensus pointing to significant upside. J.P. Morgan now targets $6,300 per ounce by year-end, citing sustained central bank buying (around 800 tonnes expected) and investor diversification. Deutsche Bank forecasts $6,000, emphasizing persistent allocation shifts toward real assets. UBS projects $6,200 (with bullish scenarios reaching $7,200), while Goldman Sachs eyes $5,400 amid "sticky" hedges against global risks. Other houses cluster in the $5,000–$6,300 range, implying 10–30% potential gains from current levels.
